מדד הפחד והתאוות בצע בקריפטו תקוע ב"פחד קיצוני", אבל האם יש סיבה לאופטימיות?

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The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently exhibits “extreme fear” with a reading of 11, and the condition has held for 12 consecutive days. Although there was a brief recovery between March 17 and March 18, the index has stayed in “extreme fear” since Jan. 28.

Traders use the index as a contrarian metric for monitoring investor sentiment as it is comprised of volatility, volume, social trend and market momentum data.

With that view in mind, in previous bull and bear markets, traders interpreted “extreme fear” readings as dip-buying opportunities, but given how bearish market conditions have been since January, it’s possible that the signal could be invalid.

On X, crypto commentator Rand Group pointed to a mismatch between investor sentiment and Bitcoin price. According to the post, investor fear has stayed elevated due to the US and Israel-Iran war headlines and rising US interest rate concerns, but the silver lining could be that even though market conditions remain negative, Bitcoin selling pressure has not increased.

Onchain data also shows a calmer market. Crypto analyst MAC_D said that the share of short-term holders, particularly the cohort holding between a week and a month, has dropped to 3.98%. In previous market cycles, readings below 4% aligned with periods where the market was close to forming a bottom.

The reduced short-term activity means fewer fast trades and less speculative demand from day traders. Long-term holders now control a larger share of the supply, and this indicates that accumulation is taking place.

Large Bitcoin holders continue to dominate the flows and crypto analyst CW8900 noted that the BTC exchange whale ratio has climbed above 60%, the highest level in a decade. The retail presence has thinned out at the same time, reaching its lowest share over that period. The analyst added,

“In general, the bottom appears when the whale ratio is at its highest. We are currently at the point where the ratio of retail investors is at its lowest in the last 10 years.”

Related: Bitcoin traders forecast short-term downside even as BTC price chases $68K

Analyst says Bitcoin has lost its strength against equities

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that the short-term relationship between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has weakened, with the 13-week correlation slipping below zero.

The BTC to S&P ratio has trended lower in 2026, as Bitcoin continues to underperform equities. Market volatility has stayed high, but Bitcoin’s price drawdowns have been larger than in stocks.

The BTC rally to $76,000 on March 17 also failed to develop into a sustained trend. With weak participation from smaller investors, this ratio suggests that BTC is currently being treated as a higher-risk asset relative to traditional markets.

This disconnect from traditional markets, combined with the current phase of “extreme fear,” may signal a potential buying opportunity for BTC investors.

Despite Bitcoin’s weak performance against the S&P 500, the underlying data tells a different story. BTC selling pressure hasn’t risen with negative market events, and whales are increasing their dominance as retail investors exit.

These signals suggest Bitcoin may be quietly entering an accumulation phase.

Related: Crypto gains political clout among 80% of UK young voters
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:4ed92b39a094b:0-crypto-fear-greed-index-stuck-on-extreme-fear-but-is-there-a-silver-lining/