קריפטו היא כמו קזינו – קריסת הביטקוין היא "בלתי נמנעת", מכיוון שה"הזרקות" של הון חדש הולכות ואזלות, כך טוען גורם בתעשייה

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Key points:
Yang Haipo explained that exchanges are the house, miners maintain the floor, and an entire ecosystem of media, KOLs, and law firms feeds off the action.
According to the crypto veteran, the industry burns $60 billion to $80 billion annually in operational costs, with no meaningful external revenue to offset it.
He said the collapse of crypto and Bitcoin is “inevitable” as the last “blood transfusions” run out.
Yang Haipo, who built two of crypto's biggest institutions, said on Thursday that the industry is heading toward an “inevitable” endgame and mirrors the casino industry almost perfectly.

In a blog post, the founder of CoinEx and ViaBTC explained that exchanges are the house, miners maintain the floor, and an entire ecosystem of media, KOLs, and law firms feeds off the action. According to him, the key difference was that casino gamblers know they're gambling, but the crypto industry packaged the same structure as a "financial revolution," “financial infrastructure of the future,” and “digital gold”.

“Bitcoin has no productive, no consumer value, and no real monetary function. There are few long-term precedents for purely consensus assets in history,” Haipo wrote. “The gold analogy doesn't hold.”

Crypto Won’t Go To Zero, But A Collapse Is ‘Inevitable’

According to the crypto veteran, the industry burns $60 billion to $80 billion annually in operational costs, with no meaningful external revenue to offset it. He said Apple (AAPL) alone nets over $90 billion a year, and the entire S&P 500 generates trillions in real profit, while cryptocurrency generates none. “There is no link in the crypto industry that makes money from the outside world, it is pure negative sum game,” he wrote.

Haipo stated that cryptocurrency won’t go completely to zero. Its ethos of free-trading, censorship-resistance, and permissionless transfers will continue to have value. “It would provide it with a bottom well below its current price. But a major collapse from the current trillion-dollar market capitalization is inevitable,” he said.

Bitcoin’s ‘Blood Transfusions’ Are Running Out

Even though Bitcoin (BTC) doesn’t generate any revenue, what kept the system alive was a series of “blood transfusions,” according to Haipo. First, it was the retail waves in 2017 and 2021, then ETFs and Strategy's (MSTR) treasury bets, injecting a combined $200 billion between 2024 and 2025. He stated that the influx of capital represented the last available buyer pool, not crypto adoption.

“The last large-scale external blood transfusion (ETF+DAT) has been used, the net increase in the internal economy is zero, and the buyer list is exhausted,” Hapio wrote. “The system is still losing blood at a rate of tens of billions of dollars each year, and blood transfusion channels are closing.”

He added that central banks are unlikely to follow the route of ETFs and DATs. Bank reserve assets require liquidity, low volatility, and sovereign backing, and Bitcoin meets none of those criteria, Hapio stated.

When Will Bitcoin Collapse?

“Currently, only about 200 billion real margin remains, supporting a circulating market value of 1.6 trillion US dollars with 8x leverage,” Hapio wrote. “The industry will not disappear, but it will shrink significantly.”

According to Hapio, the 2028 halving will be the real test for Bitcoin. If BTC’s price fails to reach a new high after the halving, it could mean that panic selling will ensue.

Bitcoin’s price edged 0.7% lower in the last 24 hours to around $77,700. Retail sentiment around the apex cryptocurrency on Stocktwits trended in ‘bullish’ territory, accompanied by ‘high’ levels of chatter over the past day.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:a12909fb9094b:0/