הין ואירו תחת לחץ, כתוצאה מהסכסוך במזרח התיכון המעורר חששות בתחום האנרגיה
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Key points:
Yen and euro hit by Middle East conflict, energy import concerns
Dollar rises due to safe-haven demand and inflation concerns
Japanese finmin puts market on notice of possible currency intervention
By Rocky SwiftThe yen and euro languished on Tuesday as the widening Middle East conflict focused attention on countries dependent on energy imports and how central banks might respond to inflation pressures.
The dollar benefited from safe-haven demand as the U.S. and Israeli air war against Iran spilled into neighbouring countries. The euro extended the previous session's decline as doubts swirled about when oil shipments from the region would be restored.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama suggested that currency market intervention remained an option to defend the yen. European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane told the Financial Times that a prolonged war could cause a spike in euro zone inflation.
"Europe and Japan stand out within the major economies, in that they still have a great need to import energy," Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank, said on a podcast. "History will tell you that currencies such as the yen and the euro would struggle to perform."
The yen
USDJPY
was little changed at 157.4 per dollar after its 0.8% drop on Monday. The euroEURUSD
slid 0.21% to $1.1662 following its 1.1% slide in the previous session.The dollar index
DXY
, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.25% to 98.76, the strongest since January 22. SterlingGBPUSD
weakened 0.38% to $1.3354. Against the Swiss francUSDCHF
, the dollar strengthened 0.33% to 0.782.On Monday, Israel attacked Lebanon in response to strikes by Hezbollah, and Tehran kept up its missile and drone attacks on Gulf states. Qatar halted its production of liquefied natural gas, prompting precautionary shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the Middle East.
Crude prices climbed for a third day after Iran threatened to fire on ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, though the U.S. military said the waterway remains open. Europe and Japan are more exposed to higher energy costs than the U.S., which is a net energy exporter.
Japan's Katayama said financial officials are closely monitoring markets with an "extremely strong sense of urgency." When asked about the possibility of currency intervention, she said Japan had reached a common understanding with the United States last year.
U.S. President Donald Trump said the war could continue for weeks and that it was unclear who was in charge in Iran after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought to ease concerns about the timeline, telling Fox News it would not be an "endless war."
Two drones hit the U.S. embassy in Riyadh, resulting in a limited fire and some damage, the kingdom's defence ministry said in a post on X, citing an initial assessment.
"I think the initial knee-jerk reaction when conflict arises, is always flight to safety," Serene Chen, J.P. Morgan's head of credit, currency and emerging market sales APAC, said at a media roundtable in Singapore on Tuesday. "So as a result, you would have seen gold rally, you were seeing people buying dollars, buying U.S. Treasuries."
Concerns that higher inflation will delay the Federal Reserve's next cut in interest rates also boosted the dollar.
A rate cut is no longer fully priced in until September, compared to previous expectations of July, based on pricing in the Fed funds futures market. Traders continue to price in two 25-basis-point cuts by year-end.
Short-term Japanese government bond yields rose as inflation fears stoked expectations of an early rate hike by the central bank.
The ECB's Lane said that previous sensitivity analyses done by the central bank showed a prolonged Middle East war would lead to a "substantial spike" in energy-driven inflation and a "sharp drop" in output.
The Australian dollar
AUDUSD
weakened 0.14% versus the greenback to $0.7081. New Zealand's kiwiNZDUSD
slid 0.3% to $0.5922.In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin
BTCUSD
fell 2.2% to $67,906.54 and ether
ETHUSD
declined 2.51% to $1,992.14.
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